TEHRAN - Iran’s complete control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a thorn in the side of President Donald Trump amid the domestic political and economic fallout of a war that the United States and Israel jointly launched on Iran more than 100 days ago.

Soon after the conflict erupted on February 28, Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and prevented vessels affiliated with its adversaries from transiting the strategic waterway.

Iran’s move sent energy prices soaring globally and fueled inflation in the United States.

Since the outset of the war, Brent crude has surpassed $110 per barrel on multiple occasions. Gasoline prices have also averaged above $6 per gallon in California, compared with around $3 per gallon in several US states before the conflict.

Last week, a Moody’s Analytics study found that the war has cost US households $750 each, or around $100 billion in total. It linked the inflation spike, higher gas prices, and declining savings directly to the conflict.

According to US media, Americans’ personal savings rate has dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2022. Inflation has risen again to its highest level since May 2023, while food prices have reached levels that are increasingly difficult for many households to afford.

Such economic pressures come months before the midterm elections in November, when Trump’s Republican Party will have to contend with the president’s weak job approval ratings as it seeks to retain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. If Democrats regain control of Congress, it could significantly constrain Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his presidency.

Hence, Trump is struggling to bring the war to an end and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

An April 8 ceasefire raised hopes of a pathway toward a more permanent settlement. However, according to Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Washington’s policy of “moving the goalposts” remains the primary obstacle to diplomacy. During 39 days of war, the US and Israel failed to achieve their main objectives, which included the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities. Following the ceasefire, Trump imposed a naval blockade to increase pressure on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the measure has so far proven ineffective. Neither military force nor economic pressure against Iran has succeeded in reversing the consequences of the waterway’s closure.

Iran has stated that only diplomacy based on the recognition of the nation’s rights—including respect for its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz—can pave the way for easing the energy crisis and cost-of-living pressures in the United States caused by disruptions to maritime transit.

Tehran also says that Iran and Oman are coordinating efforts to develop new regulations governing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz even after the war. 

The Strait of Hormuz is geographically bordered by Iran and Oman, making both countries central stakeholders in its governance. Tehran argues that any durable framework for maritime transit must reflect this reality rather than rely on external military pressure or unilateral enforcement by extra-regional actors. From this perspective, Iran and Oman are viewed as the only legitimate regional parties capable of establishing a stable and enforceable regulatory mechanism for shipping in the waterway.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports has underscored Washington’s limited ability to translate military pressure into strategic outcomes in the Persian Gulf. Despite deploying naval assets and applying economic warfare, the United States has been unable to restore stable energy flows or secure reopening of the strait on its own terms. This gap between political objectives and practical results has reinforced Tehran’s view that long-term stability in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be achieved through coercion, but only through a regional arrangement that recognizes the sovereignty and security interests of the coastal states directly bordering the waterway.